| Years ago, I attended a
lecture in which the lecturer entertained a question about technological
progress and rates of change. Wasn't change bound to occur exponentially?
The lecturer, with a donnish air, dismissed the notion, "No. Change
is always linear." And that was that. My response, like that of most
of the attendees, was to stare blankly, while feeling vaguely
disappointed. Nowadays, I'm more inclined to agree that change doesn't
always happen as quickly as we might suppose. Consider the notion of
"Internet time." Until recently, this notion might have led you
to believe that an irresistible wave of dot-coms was going to sweep aside
all those backward brick-and-mortar outfits. But then the dot-coms
exhausted the patience of investors, who tired of the seemingly
never-ending chase for marketshare, and who eventually insisted that the
dot-coms generate revenue.
GRADUALISM
The result? Some-thing of a compromise, a commitment to gradualism, as
dot-coms repositioned themselves as click-and-mortar enablers. Gradualism,
then, may be the fate of a technologically driven (and hype-burdened)
trend. And gradualism may so temper enthusiasm that claims of exponential
growth disappear, to be replaced by ... what? Well, one would hope that
gradualism and moderation could be embraced more than grudgingly, since
that is how change often occurs. But it is, perhaps, inevitable that by
the time the tortoise wins the race, the crowd has deserted the finish
line, taking their celebrations elsewhere.
But what has all this got to do with the extended enterprise -- the
nominal topic of this column? Well, some might question whether it's
appropriate to focus on the enterprise at all. These days, all the
"buzz" is on the service provider side of the equation. And the
buzz, taken to its extreme, insists that virtually all communications
functionality can and should be outsourced, so that the enterprise may
focus on its core competencies. The buzz also has it that small and
medium-sized businesses should take advantage of enhanced services, so
that they might emulate the enterprise, while creating the illusion that
they are indeed large companies.
So that's the buzz. Do we need take it seriously? I'd say yes, but I'd
add a qualification or two. No doubt many businesses will outsource their
communications functions. But not all businesses will do so. And not all
businesses which decide to outsource will choose to outsource all of their
communications functions. Some may resort to "co-sourcing"; that
is, some businesses may outsource selectively, delegating some
communications functions while retaining others.
CO-SOURCING
Curiously, despite all the buzz about outsourcing and hosted applications,
what's truly different about the new communications solutions is often
overlooked. Consider this: those who promote outsourced options usually
disparage traditional Centrex and the legacy PBX. Instead, they cite the
advantages of IP Centrex. But is that a fair comparison? Wouldn't it be
more fair to compare IP Centrex to the IP-PBX? Moreover, wouldn't it be
better to create new names for IP Centrex and the IP-PBX? These names
cannot help but emphasize the similarities to traditional platforms, when
in fact we need to recognize that the similarites between packet-based and
circuit-switched architectures are far less compelling than the
differences.
The key difference is that we are no longer talking about boxes, or
communications paths constrained by the centrality inherent in
circuit-switched architectures. With packet-based architectures, we may
implement more finely distributed communications solutions, which may blur
the distinction between in-house and hosted options. Ultimately, we may
see yet another manifestation of gradualism: hosted solutions won't
necessarily obviate in-house solutions; instead, hosted solutions and
in-house solutions may co-evolve.
So, instead of a revolution, we have a migration towards a compromise,
and the migration may itself be gradual. For example, an enterprise may
recognize that if it really wants to escape the constraints of a PBX, its
options go beyond IP Centrex. For the enterprise needs little more than a
LAN, a gateway, a firewall, and a server running call control software.
And, interestingly, the server running the call control software needn't
assume any primacy of place within the LAN. To be fair, however, it
remains to be said that service providers may benefit from the realization
that it hardly matters where the call control software resides. That is,
it may occur to the enterprise that the software could as easily run on an
applications server sitting somewhere in the service provider cloud.
GRADUAL SELECTION
Enterprises, not to mention small and medium-sized businesses, will be in
a position to let their business processes determine the nature of their
communications systems, and not the other way around. And so, if it suits
the enterprise to take a gradual approach, to be selective about which
communications capabilities it acquires, then there may be no compelling
technological reason why it shouldn't. For example, the enterprise may or
may not outsource its messaging capabilities. Or the enterprise may
experiment with telecommuting or remote access solutions. Or it may
implement extended PBX functionality. Or it may allow selected employees
to take advantage of "follow-me-anywhere" capabilities, or
enterprise-oriented WAP solutions.
Ideally, the enterprise could be very selective about which new
capabilities it would assume; that is, the enterprise needn't be presented
with a significant investment that would oblige the enterprise to embrace
or renounce specific capabilities for the duration of the investment's
amortization. Basically, the idea is to enable gradual, discriminating,
stepwise enhancements. If such options were available, any one initiative
or enhancement would become a low-cost, low-risk proposition. Some would
work; others, not. But imagine: an enterprise could extend itself
adventitiously. And, to the extent that an enterprise's enhanced
capabilities could be equated with actual growth, you could liken the
enterprise's growth to the spread of a weed. The enterprise (forgive the
comparison) could encroach on markets the way dandelions encroach on
otherwise immaculate lawns.
Do communications options already exist that would enable selective,
gradual enhancements? In a word, yes. For example, there are more than a
few vendors offering unified messaging solutions to service providers.
These service providers, in turn, provide the messaging capabilities to
businesses on a subscription basis. (Also, there are companies that would
provide these capabilities themselves, acting as ASPs.)
Vendors offering these solutions include blue-silicon, Commtouch, CTI2,
iPlanet, MessageClick, Software.com, and Voice Mobility. These solutions
are typically presented as "unified communications" platforms,
enabling free translation from medium to medium (e-mail to voice, for
example, through text-to-speech), as well as alternative means of access
and delivery (encompassing phones, mobile phones, and remote clients of
various types). In addition, many of these solutions include notification
and dynamically configurable follow-me functionality, plus integration
with calendars and task lists.
Another notable development is the extended PBX. Check out recent
announcements from MCK Communications, which, with its PBXGatewayII,
consolidates several of its remote PBX offerings, including the option of
turning personal cell phones into virtual PBX extensions.
What's next? Well, while businesses absorb the implications of unified
communications and extended PBX functionality and how these options may
blur the line between in-house and hosted capabilities, they may also want
to look forward to services that are, perhaps, most appropriate for
service providers -- services such as content delivery and transaction
services. (We invite readers to check out our next issue, which will
include a column on content delivery.) These services are often beyond the
scope of all but the largest companies. But then again, even the largest
companies may choose to delegate the delivery of such services to entities
such as ASPs.
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Pent-Up Supply
Technology and solutions providers often speak optimistically of
pent-up demand -- impatience on the part of customers or end users who
would just as soon get on with building their futures, if only they had
the right tools. But what happens when there's pent-up supply? How do we
react when creative solutions gather more dust than enthusiasm?
Pent-up supply may be underappreciated, since many assume that if a
particular offering struggles or fails, well, there must be a good,
rational, economic reason why that is so. Or, some might say that an
indifferent customer is a latter-day Luddite, a so-called late-adopter who
shouldn't occasion too much concern, not when the focus should be on early
adopters or mainstream prospects.
But sometimes I wonder if we put too much faith in rationality or, at
the least, the ability of end users to appreciate a low-risk proposition
that offers a potentially large payoff. I suspect that it is hardly a
given that good tools and creative solutions will ultimately win
recognition. Just one example: teleworking. (A pet peeve of mine.)
What is rational and economic about requiring an employee to drive a
3,000-pound car to and from an office every day, burning unconscionable
quantities of irreplaceable fossil fuel, filling the air with noxious
fumes and greenhouse gases, and consuming hours of valuable time, when
instead the employee could simply exchange a few electrons through a wire,
or a few photons through an optical fiber? If rationality and economics
dictated the decision to institute teleworking, far more people would be
working from their homes at least part of the time, not only avoiding the
costs of commuting, but the costs of maintaining surplus office space.
Teleworking, clearly, has a long way to go before it achieves
mainstream acceptance. Doubts persist about productivity and the ability
to cultivate a corporate culture, even though early adopters have
demonstrated that these concerns are much exaggerated. What might overcome
the resistance to teleworking? My guess: over the long term, international
trade agreements will gradually force nations to reallocate the costs of
burning fossil fuels, so that those with the discretion to lower
greenhouse gases may be penalized for maintaining policies that further
environmental degradation.
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